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Why you should not buy IPOs As Sheng Siong is launching its IPO next month, I expected a few calls as whenever an IPO is launching. And if you are my client, you know my answer. I decide to write this article so everybody can benefit...

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Questions to ask your Financial Adviser Every Sunday morning when I read the newspapers, I always see articles or advertisements regarding "Financial Advisers". Nowadays, just like the once prestigious word "Banker", which is misused in the...

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Revision to Nomination of Insurance Nominees Regulation With the onset of the Mental Capacity Act ("MCA") coming into effect on 1st March 2010, the Insurance (Nomination of Beneficiaries) Regulations 2009 ("the Regulations") will be amended to effect 2 changes: The...

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The ABCs of the Financial Advisers Act The title, Financial Adviser, is always mis-used in the industry and misunderstood by the consumers. On 10 October 2002, the Financial Advisers Act came into effect and all financial institutions are...

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Moratorium Underwriting by Aviva It is a common that insurance companies do not cover pre-existing condition. Typically, pre-existing conditions will be excluded with little or no chance of them being covered, even after a number of treatment-free...

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Singapore Inflation Eases and Strength of Singapore Dollar

Category : Currency, Macro Economics

Singapore CPI dropped to 4% year on year, lower than the market’s expectation, due to a more moderate increase in costs of accommodation, private road transport and oil-related items.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) lowered its forecast for core inflation to 2.5%-3% for the whole year as overall global commodity prices remain below year-ago levels, keeping domestic oil and food inflation contained.

In the past, MAS has been continuing with the policy of modest and gradual appreciation of the Singapore dollar to combat inflation. Given easing inflation and less risk of a technical recession, I think there is an increased possibility that MAS will slow the pace of SGD appreciation at its October meeting.

Below is the historical chart of SGD/USD for the past 2 years.

Japan Intervenes on Yen, Again!

Category : Currency

This morning, when most Asians were still sleeping, the Japanese government started another round of massive currency-market intervention. Recent Euro debt crisis has caused Yen, perceived as a safe haven, to strengthen to a record high at around ¥75.31 versus US dollar. The intervention has pushed greenback up as much as 5% against Yen.

However, season investors will recall that Japan’s unilateral interventions were hardly effective. As shown in the chart below, they have two major interventions this year, March and August, both triggered a big currency move, but could not change the long term trend. Will Bank of Japan succeed this time?

USD JPY cross rate as Oct 31, 2011

SGD starts to appreciate again.

Category : Currency

Singapore Dollar has went for a roller coaster ride for the past month, after it depreciated sharply since September, SGD appreciated again from end of last week. This follows MAS announcement in its half-yearly policy statement:

MAS will continue with the policy of a modest and gradual appreciation of the Singapore dollar NEER policy band in the period ahead,”

“However, given the expected moderation in core inflation, the slope of the policy band will be reduced, with no change to the width of the band and the level at which it is centred,” MAS added.

At the time of this writing, USD/SGD cross rate has dropped to 1.27 from its peak on Oct 3 at nearly 1.32. That was a nearly 4% drop in a few days.

This may be a piece of good news to many investors in this dark period as many were betting for a stronger SGD before SGD crashed. I heard many investors and businessmen have lost big sum due to strong rally of USD. But would investors learn a lesson from this incident?

USDSGD cross rate as Nov 13, 2011 (Source: Yahoo Finance)

What is Operation Twist and Its Implications

Category : Currency, Monetary and Fiscal Policy

After two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting from 20-21 September, FOMC announced that it will sell short maturity (three-years or less) securities to purchase USD 400 billion of longer-dated Treasuries (6 years to 30 years) by the end of June 2012. This is known as “Operation Twist

Technically, Operation Twist is the sale of front-end securities and using the proceeds to buy longer-dated maturities, the aim of which is to make higher-yielding alternatives more attractive, and to reduce market volatility through removing duration.

In a formal statement, the Fed explained: “By reducing the supply of longer-term Treasury securities in the market, this action should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, including rates on financial assets that investors consider to be close substitutes for longer-term Treasury securities.

“The reduction in longer-term interest rates, in turn, will contribute to a broad easing in financial market conditions that will provide additional stimulus to support the economic recovery.”

The bonds’ purchase and subsequent sale does not put any new money into the economy but is designed to encourage low interest rates to boost business borrowing for companies and mortgage lending for individuals.

Unfortunately, the markets seem to react quite negatively to the policy, which is supposed to stimulate the economy. Asian stocks fell, driving a regional benchmark index toward its largest weekly loss since 2008.

If you follow my blog, since early this month, I’ve cautioned investors to be careful about the downside risk of Singapore currency due to all these uncertainties in the markets, USD has risen above 1.3 against SGD in just a couple of weeks since! However, investors should always remember, what goes up will come down, and vice versa.

USD/SGD as 23/09/2011 Source: Yahoo Finance

Yuan Will Be Fully Convertible by 2015

Category : Currency

According to an article from Bloomberg last week, Chinese officials told EU chamber that the yuan will achieve “full convertibility” by 2015. The People’s Bank of China said on Aug. 1 it will manage the yuan more actively against a basket of currencies, instead of just the dollar, and allow market forces to play a greater role.

Yuan has been in great demand in recent years as investors have started to lose confidence in Euro and USD which were the dominant trading currencies in the past. China has accelerated the use of the yuan in international trade, and took several steps. China’s announcement to launch yuan foreign-exchange options is another significant move.

With US deficit and Euro Debt Crisis, there are many talks that Yuan will be the next safe haven. Yuan products have bloomed especially since last year. However, investors must be wary of the products offered in the market. Given the current yuan restriction, many are CNH products, which are more complicated and less liquid (wider spread).

In addition, many investors buy yuan products because they were sold the idea of potential yuan appreciation. Though CNY has appreciated against USD. The chart below shows that SGD has in fact appreciated faster than CNY in the past two years.

SGD/CNY as Sep 18,2011 (source: Yahoo Finance)

Singapore Dollar depreciates against USD

Category : Currency, Monetary and Fiscal Policy

Just last week, I wrote an article cautioning investors not to be over confident that Singapore Dollar will continue to strengthen. I’ve highlighted that stronger currency like Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc have both worried their governments.

In today’s straits times article, MAS ‘likely to ease stance on Singdollar’, it echos my opinion that “economists believe the increasing risk of a recession may prompt the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to ease its exchange rate policy when it meets next month.

If you look at USD/SGD chart below, SGD has depreciated against USD sharply this month. It dropped nearly 2.4% till today.

USD / SGD 3 month Chart (Source: Yahoo Finance)

It is always hard to go against the crowds, but those who can see through the fog are always well rewarded.

Will Singapore Dollar continue to strengthen?

Category : Currency

Investors are famous for their herding behaviors. When market is up, people go to chase risky assets hoping it will go up forever; When market drops, everybody is panic as if there is no tomorrow.

The news only tell us what has happened in the past, but people always associate these events with what would happen in the future.

I notice that there are a lot of talks about the strengthening of Singapore Dollars recently. While this trend was there for years, it seems to be noticed by the crowds only this year.

Exhange Rate History of USD/SGD till Sep 2011 (Source: Yahoo Finace)

As a result, many fund houses start to launch Singapore dollar hedged class funds, many investors abandon asset classes dominated by oversea currencies, especially US dollar.

Even insurance companies start to launch Singapore Dollar Universal Life Insurance Policy, which used to be dominated in US Dollar.

I am not here to tell you whether Singapore Dollar will continue to strengthen. However, investors must understand Singapore manage the value of the SGD against a basket of currencies that belong to its major trading partners. A strong SGD help average Singaporeans to combat inflation and rising costs from overseas, but it does hurt Singapore’s economy itself.

Most countries do not like their currencies to appreciate too much. The  inefficiency of Euro currency is to blamed for one of the reasons causing the current Euro Debt Crisis.

While Singapore debt maintains its AAA rating and seen as a safe haven for foreign investors, it does come with costs.

If you pay attention to recent news headlines.

Countries with appreciating currencies are starting to get worried. So don’t always look at the rear mirror when you are driving, look forward. As I always tell my client, stay vigilant and know why.

China to Launch Yuan Forex Options

Category : Currency

Wall Street Journal —China will launch domestic trading of yuan options against other currencies in Apr, a significant move that signals Beijing’s intention to tolerate a more flexible and volatile currency and further internationalize the yuan.

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange, China’s foreign-exchange regulator, said in a statement Wednesday that it will initially launch trading of so-called European-style yuan options on the interbank market. Businesses will be allowed to buy call and put options from banks, it said, but not to sell them unless they are squaring positions, which means they are bringing their buy and sell positions equal.

China Yuan has become increasing popular due to its booming economy and appreciation of the currency. The yuan had risen 3.7% against the U.S. dollar since June, many investors want to go into the market but are much restricted.

Recently DBS Launches Yuan Products, but investors must be wary on the risks of investing in their Yuan product.  According to LionInvestor :

The offshore yuan (CNH) is actually less liquid compared to the onshore Renminbi (CNY) and investors could be investing at very wide spreads.

If you are considering investing in a Yuan product (or any other foreign currency fixed deposit for that matter), always compare the spread and not only the interest rates that the bank is offering you.

With CNH spreads going up to as wide as 8%, you will need to be a long term investor to reap the benefits of Yuan appreciation.

Euro Debt Update

Category : Currency, Fixed Income

Last week, Portugal’s debt auction was a success as Portugal managed to sell 1.25 billion euros of government bonds. This auction was 3.2 times oversubscribed thus easing concerns over the potential for a financial bailout. The ECB has reportedly been aggressive Greek debt buyers.

Euro/USD rebounded and closed at 1.3388 based on bloomberg data.

However, Nuno Serafin, head of IG markets, Portugal, for IG Index told the BBC that while this is good news in the short term continued pressure could push yields further up.

“If market pressure continues and yields in the long term go to 7.5 or more, it will be difficult for Portugal to avoid asking for help,” he said. “This is expensive for Portugal. The issue though is the gap between what Portugal would get on the open market and the price they would pay to a rescue fund. This gap does not pay off in terms of the loss of international credibility for the Portugese government so the government will fight as much as it can.”

Singdollar has appreciated against USD fast

Category : Currency

Where it looks like everyone in the world is trying to depreciate their currency. MAS has allowed Singdollar to appreciate against the green back.

“the balance of risks is weighted towards inflation going forward. (…) MAS will therefore continue with the policy of a modest and gradual appreciation of the S$NEER policy band in the period ahead. (…) seeking to cap CPI inflation at 2-3% in 2011 from 2.5-3.0% in 2010.”

Source: http://www.forexfactory.com