Singapore Money Matters Rss

Featured Posts

Why you should not buy IPOs As Sheng Siong is launching its IPO next month, I expected a few calls as whenever an IPO is launching. And if you are my client, you know my answer. I decide to write this article so everybody can benefit...

Read more

Questions to ask your Financial Adviser Every Sunday morning when I read the newspapers, I always see articles or advertisements regarding "Financial Advisers". Nowadays, just like the once prestigious word "Banker", which is misused in the...

Read more

Revision to Nomination of Insurance Nominees Regulation With the onset of the Mental Capacity Act ("MCA") coming into effect on 1st March 2010, the Insurance (Nomination of Beneficiaries) Regulations 2009 ("the Regulations") will be amended to effect 2 changes: The...

Read more

The ABCs of the Financial Advisers Act The title, Financial Adviser, is always mis-used in the industry and misunderstood by the consumers. On 10 October 2002, the Financial Advisers Act came into effect and all financial institutions are...

Read more

Moratorium Underwriting by Aviva It is a common that insurance companies do not cover pre-existing condition. Typically, pre-existing conditions will be excluded with little or no chance of them being covered, even after a number of treatment-free...

Read more

15 European Countries at the Mercy of S&P, the all time Celebrity

Category : Macro Economics

I wonder if it has become an obsession or fun game for Standard & Poor’s to make their downgrades at the worst possible time.

The rating company, which downgraded the U.S. triple-A credit rating by one notch just after US debt ceiling was increased, warned it may carry out an unprecedented mass downgrade on the credit ratings of 15 euro zone countries.

The warning, came just after France and Germany’s jointly call for a new European Union Treaty to “re-estabilish confidence in the euro and the euro zone”.

S&P placed the ratings of 15 euro zone countries on credit watch negative — including those of top-rated Germany and France, the region’s two biggest economies — and said “systemic stresses” are building up as credit conditions tighten in the 17-nation region.

If you recall, S&P downgraded Guernsey and Isle of Man last month. Maybe Singapore will be the only AAA rated country in the world next year, after S&P’s wayang show.

 

Guernsey, IoM downgraded! The Puzzle of Credit Ratings

Category : Macro Economics

According to International Adviser, “Credit ratings agency Standard & Poor’s has downgraded Guernsey and the Isle of Man from AAA to AA+, outlook stable, owing to concerns over their external vulnerability and lack of monetary flexibility.”

Patrick Tan from Legg Mason Asset Management once said:

As we have learnt from the global financial crisis, “Rating Agencies have a penchant for communicating what we already know to be the case, and chooses to do so at the worst possible time.”

Isle of Man - A small dot in Europe

If you could recall, S&P still gave A long-term counterparty credit rating and an A-1 short-term rating on Lehman Brothers  just before Lehman bankrupted on September 15, 2008.

To look back further, during dot com bubble, did these agencies downgrade Enron, then the America’s 7th largest company, before it collapsed? The answer is NO.

For the most obvious reason, people started to doubt the accuracy of the rating agencies. Then the agencies found their “lifeboat” through unprecedented massive downgrade of sovereign debts.

“Thanks” to the recent downgrade of US government’s credit rating by S&P immediately after US raised its debt ceiling (Perfect Timing), the world credit balance was shaken and the efforts of global recovery were reversed.

The rating agencies rushed to downgrade the nations and banks one after the other amid Europe Debt Crisis.

I never figured out why Guernsey or Isle of Man were rated AAA in the first place. Are you saying that these 500+ square kilometers islands with less than 80,000 people each have better abilities to pay off the debts than any other country in the world?

And now you are saying Temasek Holdings (AAA rated by S&P), an investment company in our small red dot Singapore island, is the best place where you can lend money to in this planet, while the country cannot survive without import water and rice from her neighbors?

I am puzzled…

Spain Downgraded Again, Greece Default Almost Certain

1

Category : Macro Economics

After Fitch Ratings downgraded Spain on Oct. 7, Standard & Poor’s cut Spain’s credit rating to AA- last week, for the third time in three years. It appears more and more certain to me that Greece Default is inevitable.

Although global stock markets have largely rallied last week and even Euro has rebounded sharply. The massive downgrades of sovereign debts and banks were fast and furious.

Even though I am never a fan of credit rating agencies, the agencies seem to have learned the lessons since Lehman’s collapse. The joke of rating a bank AAA just before it went under must not be repeated.

Since September, the market has priced in 90% probability on default of Greece’s debt. If you notice, the markets have recently stopped arguing whether Greece will default, but what will happen after the default.

There are many evidences which I won’t discuss in details here. But in my opinion, whatever the policymakers are doing are not to save Greece, but buying time to prepare the impact to the affected banks and the rest of the countries. After all, Greece has a long history of defaulting its sovereign debt.

However, as the same article pointed out: “while previous defaults were dislocating to the market, the global financial system did not suffer any long term damage because of these events.

Investors must note what is important is never whether Greece will default at all, but rather how do you handle that. Do you have a plan for that?

I was recommended by a friend to read “The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine” by Michael Lewis. When 2008 sub-prime crisis happened, there were a group of people had plans for that.

Now the million dollar question is: Who have made money in this crisis?

Hold on Tight!

Moody’s cut the long-term debt ratings of Société Générale SA and Crédit Agricole SA

Category : Market Commentary

According to Wall Street Journal, Moody’s Investors Service has cut the long-term debt ratings of Société Générale SA and Crédit Agricole SA on Wednesday and kept BNP Paribas SA under review for a downgrade.

European banks are under tremendous pressure now, and the downgrade will just make the funding of the banks even more difficult. With Greece debt at high probability of default, the banking crisis will spiral and liquidity may dry up soon.

S&P Cuts U.S. Rating outlook from Stable to Negative

1

Category : Fixed Income, Market Commentary

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Standard & Poor’s threatened Monday to downgrade the United States’ prized AAA credit rating unless the Obama administration and Congress find a way to slash the yawning federal budget deficit within two years.

S&P, which assigns ratings to guide investors on the risks involved in buying debt instruments, slapped a negative outlook on the country’s top-notch credit rating and said there’s at least a one-in-three chance that it could eventually cut it.

A downgrade, which would leave Germany and France with a higher rating, would erode the status of the United States as the world’s most powerful economy and the dollar’s role as the dominant global currency.

If investors start demanding higher returns for holding riskier U.S. debt, the rise in bond yields would crank up borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. That would threaten to hurt the economy as it recovers from the worst recession since World War II.

Read the full article

Japan’s sovereign credit rating downgraded to AA-

Category : Fixed Income

Japan’s government bonds fell after the nation’s sovereign credit rating was downgraded by Standard & Poor’s, the first cut since 2002.

Benchmark 10-year bonds erased gains and the yen slid after the decision added to concerns Prime Minister Naoto Kan hasn’t done enough to curb the world’s largest debt load. Bonds had advanced earlier after a 2.6 trillion yen ($31.7 billion) sale of two-year notes attracted the highest demand since October.

“The downgrade reflects our appraisal that Japan’s government debt ratios — already among the highest for rated sovereigns — will continue to rise further than we envisaged before the global economic recession hit the country,” S&P said in a statement today.