Being one of the kiasu parents, me and my wife intend to move to a property which is near our preferred school for our children.
Although I have always been critical of unhealthy misconceptions of property investment, the recent harsh property cooling measures do bring my attention to the development of property prices and I consider this to be potential opportunity to make my acquisition.
I am not a property expert, but I am going to share with you my researches and thoughts along the way and these will be part of my series of articles relating to property investment to help you make informed decisions. Do feel free to leave comments to make this more meaningful discussion.
The Real Meaning of COV
Today I am going to talk about Cash-Over-Valuation (COV) for investing in HDB flat. (Note I am only going to talk about COV, not the movement of valuation.)
By the name, COV means you pay a premium above the valuation of the property which you intend to buy. The valuation is generally done by the professionals and I assume they have already taken into account of various factors like locations, market sentiment, demand and supply, property age, structure, floor, etc.
This has always puzzled me because “valuation”, by its own definition, means how much the property is worth in the market. i.e. the “market value”. However, why do you have to pay a much higher price than what something is worth for, especially if you treat it as an investment?
The Pursuit of Greater Fools
This reminds me of the greater fool theory of Gold investment. “Price is what the greater fool is ready to pay!” If today you pay a COV of $30,000, you must assume that some “greater fool” is willing to pay a much higher COV, say $50,000. The same person who bought your flat may also assume another “greater greater fool” to pay him a higher COV, say $80,000. But how long can this last? Can COV goes up forever?
You may say valuation will go up in the future to offset the high COV. Yes, you may still make a profit, but you will earn much less than the people who bought a similar property with lower COV, especially taking into account of the interest, stamp duty, upfront commitment, potential loss of time value of money.
Many sellers are still not ready to accept lower COV. The flats we have viewed are asking $80,000 to $100,000 COV, that is nearly 10% premium!. The most common comment from the seller was always “If I have sold this flat before the property cooling measure..”
To me, these are clear signs that property prices have went up to non sustainable levels. Just look at the Price Index of HDB Resale Flats. Investment asset price always accelerates just before it crashes. You may want to sell your flat at $100,000 premium simply because your neighbor has made hundreds of thousands of dollars. You don’t know why, neither does your buyer know. I may have to pay some premium for better renovation or scarce unit, but $100,000 COV will definitely not from me.
HDB Owners Do Default
Singaporeans are lucky that the tragedy of US subprime did not happen here. However, that is not because Singapore property owners are more prudent. In October 2008, some 33,000 flat owners owed HDB arrears of three months or more. They make up less than 8 per cent of the 420,000 households with outstanding HDB loans, nearly reached US housing default rate of 9% at that time.
Fortunately, HDB is much more lenient than the banks and they did not force sell those houses; but unfortunately, the lesson was never learnt. Why blaming the government where you could be the person who paid the high COV just because it was asked for? How many people have been living beyond their means?
For now, I will just wait patiently for the price to move in my favor.