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Why you should not buy IPOs As Sheng Siong is launching its IPO next month, I expected a few calls as whenever an IPO is launching. And if you are my client, you know my answer. I decide to write this article so everybody can benefit...

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Questions to ask your Financial Adviser Every Sunday morning when I read the newspapers, I always see articles or advertisements regarding "Financial Advisers". Nowadays, just like the once prestigious word "Banker", which is misused in the...

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Revision to Nomination of Insurance Nominees Regulation With the onset of the Mental Capacity Act ("MCA") coming into effect on 1st March 2010, the Insurance (Nomination of Beneficiaries) Regulations 2009 ("the Regulations") will be amended to effect 2 changes: The...

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The ABCs of the Financial Advisers Act The title, Financial Adviser, is always mis-used in the industry and misunderstood by the consumers. On 10 October 2002, the Financial Advisers Act came into effect and all financial institutions are...

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Moratorium Underwriting by Aviva It is a common that insurance companies do not cover pre-existing condition. Typically, pre-existing conditions will be excluded with little or no chance of them being covered, even after a number of treatment-free...

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US Debt Ceiling – The Dangerous Game and a Wayang Show

Category : Monetary and Fiscal Policy

Further to my story about US debt ceiling problem, I showed you that the debt ceiling has been raised many times in the history. It looks that raising debt ceiling is a norm in US, but why are investors worried? Let me continue the story.

Although Uncle Sam is a very powerful person, there are another two influential politicians in the country, the Democratic Party (The “D”) and the Republican Party (The “R”). If Sam wants to increase the ceiling, the “D” and the “R” must reach an agreement.

The problem is, the “D” and the “R” are two spoiled kids who have been fighting against each other for the sake of fighting since they were born.

The “D”, being the ruling party of the country now, wants a long term solution because they have been criticized of allowing Uncle Sam’s debt piling up for the past years.

However, the “R”, who was always blaming “D” for their inability to cut budget deficit, wants a temporary plan which last only for six months. So they can restart the blaming game again and probably even use it as a tool to bring “D” down.  (The irony is that a big chunk of current deficit is left by “R” when they ruled the country)

Uncle Sam is frustrated, because being so rich by borrowing so much money, he has a deep pocket that he can pay his debt due on Aug 2 anyway. Even if he run out of cash, he can choose to halt social security payments or default on other obligations like paying its military before it defaults on its debts.

However, because this stupid politics, he can just sit there and watch this wayang show. It is even more ridiculous that the US Congress can authorise future spending but subsequently have to vote on whether to permit the necessary borrowing to fund the agreed budget deficit.

No wonder US President Obama said:

“If we don’t come to an agreement, we could lose our country’s AAA credit rating, not because we didn’t have the capacity to pay our bills – we do – but because we didn’t have a AAA political system to match our AAA credit rating,

Do the politicans care about the economical impact of this dangerous game? Obviously not! They are politicians.

Now the show is coming to the end. Tighten your seat belt.

US Debt Ceiling History

Category : Monetary and Fiscal Policy

Yesterday, I told you a story about Sam’s debt problem to explain what is US Debt Ceiling. The story continues here.

When the debt ceiling is going to be reached, the “poor” and “moody” agency who used to rate Sam’s debt to be the best qualify, now tells you that Sam’s debt is not so good after all.

To your horror, you just find out that this “poor” and “moody” agency used to give the same AAA rating for some CDO debt which was eventually defaulted.

So now is Sam going to default his debt for the first time in the history?

Luckily, because Sam owes money to so many people, he is a very influential person. He even has the power to change the law to raise the ceiling so he can borrow more. In fact, he has already done it many times in the past. Look at the historical chart below.

US Debt Ceiling History

Now you feel much relieved right?

The story continues…

Does US Debt Ceiling matter to you?

Category : Monetary and Fiscal Policy

It always does not matter until it matters.

For months, people were talking about Euro Debt Crisis, Suddenly, you heard that US is going to reach its US$14.3 Trillion debt ceiling by 2 Aug. Today’s Straits Times prime news headline is “Markets spooked, gold shines on US debt fears”, “Greenback falls to record low against Singdollar and yen”.

So what is debt ceiling? Why is it so important?

What is Debt Ceiling

The debt ceiling is a US statutory limit on the amount of U.S federal debt held by the public and the government’s own accounts. The debt ceiling became law with the Second Liberty Bond Act of 1917, which helped finance the United States’ entry into World War I.

Imagine that you have a good friend, Sam, who always borrow money from you because occasionally, he has some “cash flow problem” running his business, but he always pay you back on time, with full interest for the past 20 years. Because his credibility is so good, you have lent more and more money to him over the years, but never care how his run his business. Sam was even accredited by some “poor” agency as the best person you can lend money to in this world.

One day, you discovered that Sam’s business was in fact very bad for years. The money which was return to you was borrowed from many other creditors like you.

This is not so bad, after all, as long as he continues to serve his interest and pays you back when the loan matures.

However this morning you read the newspaper, you find out that Sam has borrowed to the maximum loan amount stipulated by law. That means he cannot borrow money from others and pay you any more! he is going to default his debt, which is your money!

Now, do you start to feel worried?

The story continues…